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Fitch Group Improved Harvest in 2017 Boosts Moroccos GDP Growth

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Toronto – BMI Research, a Fitch Group Company, is predicting “real” GDP growth for Morocco in 2017, due to a substantial harvest rebound in the agricultural sector.BMI’s forecast calls for an increase in GDP growth from 0.9 percent in 2016 to 4.3 percent in 2017. They are attributing this growth primarily to favorable weather forecasts for the year.Agricultural Recovery Behind Growth 2016 saw a contraction in the agricultural sector of 10.9 percent due to a severe drought, which resulted in a loss in grain production of more than 70 percent. BMI’s agribusiness team is predicting that grain production in 2017 will increase by 136 percent, making it a key factor in Morocco’s predicted GDP growth.“Over the past decade, agriculture accounted for on average 13% of GDP and more than 40% of employment. As such, the sharp recovery in agricultural output will support private consumption growth in the country as well as exports.”Strategic Development of Manufacturing Sector on TrackContinued reforms to the business environment and Morocco’s political stability continue to bode well for its strategy to become an export and manufacturing hub between Europe and Africa. According to BMI, the “relative political stability by regional standards will also support policy continuity and investment-friendly reforms over the coming years.”BMI is also predicting a continued and gradual move toward higher-skilled manufacturing in the Kingdom, supported by investment promotion efforts on the part of the government. It identifies the auto and other transportation sectors, including aeronautics, as outperformers in 2016. “Foreign investment in the auto sector underpins this positive trajectory, with French manufacturer Renault increasingly using Morocco as a manufacturing base.”Tourism Sector RecoveringAfter suffering from the effects of “regional security turmoil” in the MENA region throughout 2014-2015, the tourism sector in Morocco is rebounding. This is due to the fast growth in Chinese and Russian tourists visiting the Kingdom as well as Morocco’s relative stability compared to other parts of the region, such as Tunisia. BMI warns, however, that tourists remain apprehensive regarding security concerns in the region.Akhannouch ConcursBMI’s forecasts support statements made earlier this week when the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, Development, Water and Forests, Aziz Akhannouch, announced record expectations for Morocco’s cereal output. He also reported a noticeable increase in quality and production in the animal industry during opening ceremonies for the 9th Agricultural Conference, Monday in Meknes.“This year’s cereal output is expected to hit record levels between the three main cereals: 5.4 million tons for common wheat, 3 million tons for barley and 2.5 million tons for durum wheat.” Akhannouch said.At the same time, Akhannouch also provided an update on Morocco’s Green Plan, which has created more than 300,000 farms. The animal industry has also recorded significant growth in quality and productivity.Concluding its report, BMI is confident of the Kingdom’s ability to maintain its present positive course saying, “[…] we remain optimistic on the kingdom’s ability to become a manufacturing and exporting hub between Europe and Africa.” read more

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Closing Bell North American markets take fiscal cliff talks as a reason

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TORONTO — North American stock markets kept positive Tuesday buoyed by hopes that U.S. political leaders are moving closer to a deal that would steer clear of the “fiscal cliff.”Here are the closing numbersTSX — 12,334.34 +52.99 0.43%S&P 500 — 1,446.79 +16.43 1.15%Dow — 13,350.96 +115.57 0.87%Nasdaq — 3,054.53 +43.93 1.46%The S&P/TSX composite index rose 52.99 points to 12,334.34, while the TSX Venture Exchange ticked back 8.99 points to 1,176.00.The Canadian dollar was down 0.21 of a cent to 101.45 cents US.House Speaker John Boehner said Tuesday he remains hopeful that a fiscal cliff compromise can be reached, but added President Barack Obama has yet to offer a balanced deficit-cutting plan. Boehner said that Obama’s latest offer for US$1.3-trillion in tax increases over the next decade with $850 billion in spending cuts is not balanced enough.But Boehner’s plan also faces opposition from other quarters. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says the Boehner plan can’t pass the Democratic-run Senate.If congressional Republicans, Democrats and the White House can’t reach a deal by Jan. 1, tax cuts enacted a decade ago for all Americans will expire and government programs will be cut across the board. The combination could lead to a U.S. recession that could spread to other economies of the world.But traders still seem confident a deal can be etched out.On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials gained 115.57 points to 13,350.96, logging the first back-to-back triple digit gains since July. The Nasdaq rose 43.93 points to 3,054.53 while the S&P 500 index was up 16.43 points at 1,446.79.Meanwhile, the U.S. current account trade deficit narrowed in the July-September quarter to the smallest level since late 2010, but the improvement may not last.The U.S. Commerce Department said the deficit fell to US$107.5-billion in the third quarter, down nine% from the second quarter imbalance of $118.1 billion. It was the lowest trade gap since the final three months of 2010.And Standard & Poor’s rating agency has boosted the credit grade of Greece by six notches to B-, which moves the country out of default status. After concerns earlier this year that Greece would leave the euro, S&P said that it’s confident the other 16 countries using the currency will ensure that Greece stays within the union.In commodities, oil prices trekked higher as the January crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 73 cents to US$87.93 a barrel. The TSX energy sector led the market, gaining 0.7% with EnCana Corp. gaining 23 cents to $19.99.Gold stocks dropped 0.4%, while February gold bullion ended down $27.50 to US$1,670.70 an ounce — its lowest close since Aug. 30. March copper settled 1.3 cents lower to US$3.65 a pound.Information technology stocks were the biggest decliners on the TSX with Research In Motion moving back 19 cents to $13.47.Air Canada unveiled plans to launch its new low-cost airline, Rouge, on July 1. The carrier will focus on leisure destinations in the United States and Caribbean and some routes in Europe. Shares of the company rose 13 cents to $1.83.Heroux-Devtek shareholders approved a $160-million special distribution resulting from the sale in August of its industrial and aerostructure operations to focus on its landing-gear business. Its shares increased 13 cents to $12.72.Here’s the news investors were watching today:Air Canada targets new leisure destinations with low-cost carrier Rouge13 lessons Warren Buffett learned about how to achieve successRIM downgraded as better entry point seen aheadApple loses bid to ban Samsung devices as fans turn bearishON DECK WEDNESDAYECONOMIC NEWSCANADA8:30 a.m.Wholesale trade (Oct): Economists expect 0.5% rise UNITED STATES8:30 a.m.Housing starts (Nov): Economists expect 2.5% decline Building permits (Nov): Economists expect 0.8% rise CORPORATE NEWSUNITED STATESFedEx Q2 earnings: Analysts expect US$1.41 a share General Mills Inc Q2 earnings: Analysts expect 79¢ Bed Bath & Beyond Q2 earnings: Analysts expect US$1.09 Paychex Q2 earnings: Analysts expect 41¢ Accenture Q1 earnings: Analysts expect US$1.04 read more

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